Let’s start with the bad news: Calculating the odds to each Hold’em scenario is not the most trivial of tasks. Unfortunately, it involves some (simple) arithmetic. But if you’ve decided to play, you might as well give it your best shot. Without knowing your odds, you’re basically betting in the dark. You don’t know what chances you stand to win a hand, nor do you know what the payout is in case you win. This is where poker odds come in, and help you become a smarter player.

Now for the good news: There is a shortcut for calculating your (approximate) hand odds. Using this technique can greatly help beginners to improve their poker decision making. Before we present you with the shortcut, we must go over some basics.

Here is a short reminder to the golden rule of poker odds: If your pot odds are greater than your hand odds, you should make the bet, since over time you are expected to see a profit.

Let’s start with calculating pot odds.

Pot Odds

Pot odds are very similar to payouts at casinos. It is a ratio representing the amount you stand to win per bet. Pot odds is a simple ratio – the money in the pot divided by the money it costs to call the bet. For example, if there is $50 in the pot, and calling the bet costs $5, then the pot odds are 50:5, or 10:1. This basically means that the payout for this specific bet is 10:1 – you stand to make $50 by betting $5, which is $10 for every $1 you put in.

Hand Odds

Hand odds are simply your chance to make a hand in poker. This information is very important. After you know the pot odds (the payout to the bet), all you have to know is if you stand a greater chance than the pot odds to make your hand (and hopefully win the bet). For example, if your pot odds are 10:1, and you have 4:1 chance of making your hand, then you would be calling a good bet (remember: if the pot odds are greater than the hand odds, the bet is good). Over time, you will win 1 out of 5 times you call this bet. When you win, you will make 11 times the bet, which is more than double the amount you put in (you paid for 5 bets, assuming that all the bets were for the same amount).

But how do you calculate your chance to make a hand? The basic formula is: Number of ‘outs’ divided by number of cards remaining in the deck. This is the probability of you making your hand (in percentage). But don’t worry about all that complicated math right now. The shortcut is coming up. First we will explain how to count your ‘outs’ and the ‘remaining cards’.

Outs

‘Outs’ are the cards you need to appear on the table in order to make the hand you’re drawing for. Example: if you’re holding two diamonds, and the flop shows two diamonds, then you need one more diamond to hit your flush. There is a total of 13 diamonds in a deck of cards, 4 of which are already out (the two you’re holding plus the two on the table). So there are 9 more cards that will complete the flush and ‘make’ your hand. This means you have 9 outs.

Remaining cards

There are 52 cards in a deck. You’ve been dealt 2, and let’s suppose that there are 4 open cards on the table. You have no information about all the rest – your opponents may be holding diamonds, but they may not. The number of remaining cards, therefore, is 52 – 2 – 4 = 46.

Your chances of making the flush on the river are therefore 9/46 in percentage, which is about 0.19, or 19%. To change the percentage value into the more instinctive ‘odds’ representation, this formula should be used:

Odds = ( (1 / percentage) -1 ) to 1
Using our previous flush draw example, the hand odds will be:
Odds = (1 / 0.19) – 1 = 4.1 : 1 (approximately) to hit a flush on the river.

The shortcut to calculating hand odds

This simple trick works like a miracle. Using the shortcut, you don’t have to worry about remaining cards. All you have to count is your outs. Here is how it works:

From the flop: Take the number of outs you have, and multiply them by 4.
From the turn: multiply the number of outs by 2.

This simple action will give you the approximate percentage of you hitting your hand.

Another shortcut makes it easier to represent the percentage as odds.
Replace this formula: Odds = ( (1 / percentage) -1 ) to 1
With the simpler formula: Odds = ( (100 / percentage in whole numbers) -1 ) to 1

Let’s use our previous example to show how the shortcut works.
Holding two diamonds and with two more showing after the turn, we have 9 outs to make the flush.
Since we are after the turn (4 cards showing on the table), we multiply the number of outs by 2.
9*2 = 18%. That’s approximately the percentage probability of hitting the flush. Remember, the long calculation resulted in 19%, which is pretty close.

Now, to change that percentage figure into the simpler odds representation, we’ll use the easy formula:

Odds = ( (100 / 18) -1 ) = 4.5 to 1. Again, that’s very close to our previous result.

Now all you have to do is apply the golden rule of poker odds: If your pot odds are greater than your hand odds, you should make the bet, since over time you are expected to see a profit.

This shortcut can be a great starting point for more complex and accurate poker odds calculations. Take advantage of it during your next poker game, and you will experience an immediate improvement in your game.

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